Tag Archives: GMG Poll

James Dowd Breaks Down Our "unoffical" just-for-fun completely non-scientific poll (Surprise Our Margin Of Error Was Better Than Gallup)

James writes-

You guys aren’t going to believe this-

But your average margin of error for your “unofficial” just-for-fun completely non-scientific poll was 2.48.

That’s better than Rassmussen

That’s better than Gallup

The only four errors of the poll were, and I predicted two of these:

-undershooting Romero: anybody knows that the Godmother is Queen. A huge portion of her people don’t take online polls.

-overshooting Lundberg- He still did well, but your sample favoured him higher than reality.

-Kimberly was a fluke, possibly due to her association with GMG. Known online but not IRL perhaps

-Favazza fizzled. The surprise of the night. Don’t know what happened there.

And the two big errors were easy to spot.


jamesdowd says:

Here is the spreadsheet where I take the raw GMG numbers and compare them on the left to the outcome. On the right, for fun, I took the GMG numbers and then try and “correct” them- I did this the day before the election to see how accurate I could be, if I could improve on the raw. It turns out, if you were betting- GMG came in at a 2.48 margin of error, and my “corrected” numbers at 3.78 in the candidate-based questions. You would have been better off going with the GMG raw even thought it had some obvious errors like the Romero whiff and over-reporting/under-reporting support for some school committee candidates. GMG also loved it some Lundberg more than the rest of Glocuester, but it didn’t matter in the outcome.

My hypotheses as to why this is revolves around the fact that GMG probably accurately reflects the opinions of a large class of “likely voters” and is therefore more likely to push through the noise with it’s large sample size. It’s limits might be that it underepresents SoRo (south of the Rotary) to the favor of Eglo, Magnolia, Wheeler’s and outsiders. But still- 2.48? Amazingly close predictor.


GMG Poll Question- Vote For The Style Of The Blog

As you know if you’ve been a reader of GMG for any amount of time at all we post a lot of pictures and videos.

The format of the blog is such that the current style only allows us to post pics and videos which are 500 pixels wide.  This bothers the hell out of me because I don’t feel as though people get to see some of the amazing photos in all their glory because of this limitation.  It’s also the reason I go through the extra step often times of providing a link to where the full size photo is hosted for those who might actually want to be able to see the pictures and videos full sized.  To say that always typing out the hyperlink to the larger sized photos or videos isn’t a bit monotonous would  be a lie.

So anyway there is an alternative- changing the look of the blog to one which would support a larger viewing width of 725 pixels wide.  We would gain a lot of screen real estate where the current wasted space in the left hand margin is and we could post larger pictures and videos. I think the typeface might also be a bit easier to read on the newer style.  We would lose the Good Harbor Beach Logo Header up at the top and the light blue borders however.

All of the other features such as the commenting and stuff you see in the right hand column would remain.

The format I was thinking to switching to is the blog format FOB Bowsprite uses.  You can check out her site here to see exactly what GMG would look like except you would swap out her information and links for ours.

How Did You Find GMG? -Poll

Please tell how you found us if your answer isn’t listed

Home Price Article From the Wall Street Journal and GMG House Price Poll

Good Egg and Big Time Gloucester Businesswoman Ruth Pino forwarded  this article to me-

click the highlighted text below for the full article

Home Prices Sink Again, but Pace Is a Bit Slower Drop of 18.6% for February Is Widespread, With Half of Markets Posting Steeper Declines Than in the Previous Month

By SUDEEP REDDY Home prices fell sharply in February, but for the first time in 16 months the annual pace of deterioration slowed. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index measuring home prices across 20 major cities declined 18.6% in February from a year earlier. That marked a slight improvement from January’s 19% annual decline, but half of the cities posted deeper declines than in prior months. On a monthly basis, home prices fell 2.2% from January.

I wonder if interest rates crept up if things would get seriously ugly around here.

I’m shocked that there hasn’t been a big woosh down but it seems like the big time problem areas in the country are the places where there was a ton of open land to build on and the low interest rates fueled an explosion in supply of new homes.

It will be interesting to see what comes next.

I keep hearing of more and more layoffs but hardly see anyone losing their homes.

Either the banks are keeping the foreclosures a great big secret or they just arent happening as rapidly as I would have thought with all the job losses.

I have no idea how a young family affords a house and health insurance these days.

What do you think will happen with local home prices?

Have You Altered Your Spending Habits Since The Economic Downturn Poll

GMG Poll